Video Poker: How a Holding Mistake Changes the Return Percentage
Video poker is often described as one of the most mathematically transparent casino games. Unlike slots, its long-term return is not hidden behind complex volatility models. It is clearly defined by the paytable and, crucially, by the player’s decisions. In 2026, with most reputable UK-licensed operators publishing theoretical RTP figures openly, it is well understood that optimal strategy can push certain variants close to – or even above – 99% return. However, a single incorrect decision in how you hold or discard cards can reduce that percentage far more than many players realise. Over time, repeated holding mistakes transform a high-return game into one that performs no better than an average slot machine.
Why Holding Decisions Define the Real RTP in Video Poker
Every standard video poker variant, whether Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild or Bonus Poker, is built around a fixed mathematical model. The published return-to-player (RTP) assumes perfect strategy. For example, a full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better game offers a theoretical RTP of 99.54% when played optimally. This figure is not a guarantee; it is a projection based on millions of simulated hands using flawless card selection.
The crucial point is that video poker is a game of conditional probabilities. After the initial five cards are dealt, each possible hold combination carries a different expected value (EV). When you keep a specific set of cards, you are effectively choosing one probability tree over another. Even small deviations from the optimal hold can reduce expected value by fractions of a percent per hand, which compounds significantly over extended sessions.
In 2026, many professional analysts still use strategy charts derived from combinatorial mathematics rather than guesswork. These charts rank all possible holding decisions by expected value. If a player ignores this ranking and, for example, keeps a low pair instead of pursuing a four-card flush draw with higher EV, the mathematical return begins to decline immediately.
How Small Errors Translate into Measurable Losses
At first glance, the difference between two holding options might appear negligible. For instance, in 9/6 Jacks or Better, holding a low pair might have an expected value of approximately 0.82 units, while holding four cards to a flush might yield around 0.85 units. The gap of 0.03 units seems minor, yet repeated over thousands of hands, it produces a clear decline in overall return.
Professional simulations demonstrate that consistent suboptimal decisions can reduce a 99.54% game to 98% or lower. A 1.5% drop in RTP may not sound dramatic, but over £10,000 in wagering volume, that represents a difference of £150 in theoretical loss. In long-term play, these marginal inefficiencies define whether the game remains relatively low-house-edge or becomes significantly more expensive.
The mathematics behind this effect is straightforward: RTP is an average across millions of perfectly played hands. Once human error enters the equation, the real-world RTP shifts downward. The more frequent the holding mistake, the greater the gap between theoretical and actual return.
Common Holding Mistakes That Reduce Expected Value
One of the most widespread mistakes in video poker is overvaluing made hands and undervaluing strong draws. Many players instinctively keep a low pair rather than chase a four-card straight or flush draw with higher EV. Emotionally, a guaranteed small payout feels safer than a probabilistic larger one, yet mathematically this choice often reduces long-term profitability.
Another frequent error occurs in Bonus Poker variants, where high pairs and specific four-of-a-kind payouts alter optimal strategy. Players who apply Jacks or Better logic to Double Bonus or Double Double Bonus games often misplay hands because payout structures change EV rankings. Strategy must match the exact paytable; otherwise, even experienced players can unintentionally sacrifice return.
In Deuces Wild, mistakes are even more costly. Wild cards dramatically alter probability trees, and suboptimal holds can reduce RTP by several percentage points. Since full-pay Deuces Wild theoretically exceeds 100% with perfect strategy, incorrect holding decisions quickly eliminate any advantage and revert the game to a standard house edge.
The Psychological Drivers Behind Incorrect Holds
Human bias plays a substantial role in holding mistakes. Loss aversion encourages players to secure a small win rather than pursue a statistically stronger draw. This conservative instinct feels rational but contradicts expected value logic. Over time, such caution becomes mathematically expensive.
Another factor is pattern recognition bias. Players may believe that “flushes are due” or that certain outcomes occur in streaks. In reality, each deal is independent, governed by a random number generator tested under UK Gambling Commission standards. Holding decisions should reflect EV rankings, not perceived patterns.
Fatigue also contributes. As sessions extend, concentration weakens and quick decisions replace structured thinking. Even minor lapses—such as failing to notice a three-card royal flush possibility—reduce the session’s effective RTP. In high-volume play, these small errors accumulate rapidly.
Protecting Your Return: Strategy, Tools and Discipline
The most reliable method to preserve theoretical RTP is to use a verified strategy chart specific to the exact paytable. In 2026, many reputable educational resources provide downloadable charts for common variants such as 9/6 Jacks or Better, 8/5 Bonus Poker, and full-pay Deuces Wild. Memorising priority rankings significantly reduces decision errors.
Practising with training software is equally valuable. Strategy trainers highlight incorrect holds in real time and display the expected value difference between chosen and optimal plays. Over several thousand simulated hands, players can internalise correct decision patterns and dramatically narrow the gap between theoretical and actual RTP.
Equally important is game selection. Not all video poker titles are equal. Some online casinos offer reduced paytables—such as 8/6 or 7/5 Jacks or Better—which lower theoretical RTP below 98% even with perfect play. Choosing full-pay variants ensures that strategic effort is mathematically worthwhile.
Long-Term Perspective and Bankroll Implications
Understanding variance is essential. Even perfect play does not eliminate short-term swings. Video poker retains volatility because large payouts, such as royal flushes, occur infrequently. Players must separate short-term outcomes from long-term expectation when evaluating their strategy.
From a bankroll perspective, maintaining optimal holds effectively reduces the house edge. A reduction from 2% to 0.5% house advantage meaningfully extends playing time and lowers expected loss. Over hundreds of sessions, this difference becomes financially significant.
Ultimately, video poker rewards discipline and mathematical awareness. A single incorrect hold does not ruin a session, but habitual mistakes systematically erode return percentage. By aligning every decision with verified expected value data, players keep the game operating close to its advertised RTP and retain one of the few genuine strategic advantages available in casino gaming.